The strongest case each way
For · GreensThe bill is cruel and should be scrapped: the government's own modelling shows it would push about 241,000 people off the NDIS by 2031 and cut nearly $40 billion, while forcing people with permanent disabilities to repeatedly prove them and stripping supports needed to shower, keep a job or leave the house. Nearly every inquiry witness said it should not pass, and the government could raise the money elsewhere instead of cutting disability supports.
Against · Government (Labor)The NDIS is growing unsustainably — projected to cost around $100 billion a year by the middle of next decade — and a right that can't be sustained is a right denied. The reforms tackle fraud, clarify who the scheme is for, invest $10 billion in supports outside the scheme, and reset community-participation spending to 2023 levels; the scheme will still grow and stay the most comprehensive disability support in the OECD. Claims that supports are being removed entirely are false.
Mixed · CoalitionThe bill as written is not fit for purpose and frightened witnesses who fear for their lives, but the government has failed to even quantify how much fraud exists, ignored thin markets in the regions and given the minister sweeping powers. The Coalition wants a six-month inquiry and proper amendments rather than ramming it through — but did not vote for the Greens' motion to withdraw it entirely.
Mixed · David Pocock (Ind)Reform is genuinely needed — the scheme must be sustainable, well governed and protected from fraud, and participants themselves say savings can be found. But the bill hands the minister power to cut personal, social and community supports by up to 99% with almost no safeguards, and cutting community participation risks the isolation that leaves people unsafe. The inquiry should be extended for proper scrutiny.